Duterte net satisfaction drops significantly in September 2017

The fifth quarterly satisfaction rating from SWS is out here.

Results:

• National net satisfaction drops from +66 in previous quarter to +48.

• National gross satisfaction with Duterte is at 67%, while dissatisfaction is at 19%.

• Drop steepest in the Class E of the population at only +35 net satisfaction from a previous +67.

• One in every four members of respondents in Class E now dissatisfied with Duterte.

• Gross satisfaction with Duterte rises in Class ABC -- the only class group where gross satisfaction rose up.

• Net satisfaction with Duterte lower than P-Noy's for the same period, but higher than Erap's.

Duterte's Martial Law stands on weak ground

Rodrigo Duterte has reportedly extended Martial Law in Mindanao until December. That act by Congress is brazen, considering that the survey numbers on Martial Law point to its shaky foundations on the public.

• SWS reports that on a national view, 57% of Filipinos support Martial Law for the whole of Mindanao. What the SWS doesn't say is that net approval on the same is only +17. Net approval is approval minus disapproval, and disapproval for Martial Law for the whole of Mindanao is quite high at 40%.

• Filipinos approve of Martial Law only in Mindanao. They don't want Martial Law for the Visayas and Luzon.

Filipinos may approve of Martial Law to address the war in Mindanao. It's an entirely different matter outside of Mindanao, where approval for Martial Law drops down to 20% (but more on this later).

Should Duterte think of bringing ML to the national capital, he will face significant opposition. Almost seven out of 10 Filipinos disagree with Martial Law being implemented in Luzon. Note that this figure is higher than the national public approval for Martial Law in Mindanao, which is only 57%.

• In fact, the 20% public approval for Martial Law in Luzon is only a result of respondents from Mindanao pulling the averages. Without Mindanao respondents, approval for Martial Law drops down to only 13% of the population. Mindanaoans very highly approve of Martial Law for the entire country. Respondents from Mindanao are the only category of respondents with a net positive approval for Martial Law. Why is this?

Well, for one, they're the ones getting inconvenienced by the war. Another thing, let's not forget that Mindanao is a Duterte base. They love Duterte there.

• Support for Martial Law thus appears to be a product of 1) contingency; and 2) historical disconnect. Consider this: Approval for a Luzon-based Martial Law is highest among those within the 18-24 age bracket. This is the generation born after 1993.

Conversely, Martial Law is most unpopular among those who are aged 55 and above. Net disagreement with ML from this age group is highest at -54. They also register the highest disagreement at 71%. This is the group of respondents whose youngest members were born in 1962, 10 years before Marcos' Martial Law declaration in 1972.

Support for Martial Law is contingent on the war -- on the supposed need to counter the forces of "terrorism," which is how the government has framed it. Again, the highest support comes from people from Mindanao, the people most affected by the conflict.

The same groups who support for Martial Law for Mindanao -- older people, and people from Metro Manila -- are the same ones who don't want it being implemented elsewhere. For them, this is really just about the war, and nothing else.


What do the numbers tell us, then? To counter Martial Law, I think the strategic point is to show that the war is actually over, and the enemy has been subdued. To continue getting popular support for ML, Duterte will likely play up on the people's fears and say that ISIS is still a very potent force. Toward this end, he will get a lot of help from many of the country's supposed "terrorism experts" in instilling fear among the public.

A history drive is in order. The story of Martial Law needs constant retelling. We have to bring down the 26% approval for Martial Law among the youth to 0%.

Finally, we can see that at least Duterte is still following fairly predictable behavior. He imposed ML in a region he knew would support it wholeheartedly. A Rodrigo Duterte pushing for expanding the coverage of Martial Law elsewhere will be a sign to watch out for.

For now, he has committed his first mistake -- extending a military policy that no one likes outside of his own home base.

Duterte hits peak public satisfaction rating -- SWS

Although Rodrigo Duterte's approval rating went down in March (a separate survey conducted by SWS rival Pulse Asia), SWS's most recent report showed Rodrigo Duterte attaining a satisfaction rating of +66. "Satisfaction" is the difference between "satisfied" and "dissatisfied" respondents.

This net satisfaction rating is the highest since Duterte took office. The results probably should not come as surprising. It is expected, in the sense that net satisfaction does not really drop dramatically until an administration's third year. Duterte's public net satisfaction also traces the pattern of presidents past, with the exception of the Aquino II regime. Note that Aquino II still has the highest average entire-term public net satisfaction compared with all post-EDSA presidents.

SWS reports historical low in poverty rate (or 42% of families)

Most probably still as a result of the policies of the past administration, SWS reports self-rated poverty by Filipino families at 42%. As the survey company happily reports: "This bettered the previous record-low of 43% in March 1987 and also in March 2010."

A country with 42% of families reporting being poor is not exactly good news, but is at least more truthful statistic compared with what the PSA offers for this data point (they don't do it in the "self-reported" manner).

Link: http://www.sws.org.ph/swsmain/artcldisppage/?artcsyscode=ART-20161013101158

Duterte's support base

The SWS's first satisfaction survey with Duterte is out. Here are four main takeaways from the data. The raw numbers can be found here. Duterte's net satisfaction is +64, which is the difference between satisfied and dissatisfied respondents. This figure is the highest among all post-EDSA presidents except Ramos, who began his term with a +66.

Summary:

1. Duterte has a strong class base.
Among the Class D and E, net satisfaction with Duterte was +65, just a point above the national average. And while the ABC Class were among the least satisfied with Duterte compared with other categories (location, gender, education and age) at 69%, this same class, true to form, had the highest number of Undecided (18%). At present, Duterte enjoys near universal approval.

2. The center of gravity of Duterte's support base is still Mindanao.
Being from Mindanao is a guaranteed determinant of Duterte support. Respondents coming from Mindanao provides Duterte with a net satisfaction of +85, which is more than 20 points above the national average. The numbers of respondents that were dissatisfied and undecided with Duterte are also both lowest in Mindanao, when compared with other categories.

3. The idealist youth
The highest rate of dissatisfaction with Duterte is among the youngest Filipinos, those aged 18 to 24, with 1.7 out of every 10 respondents saying they are not happy with their president. The number of undecided respondents within this age bracket is also lower than the national average at 11%. Net satisfaction within this age bracket at +55 is second lowest only to the category of achieving the lowest educational attainment (+54), although this category has a very high number of undecided. The youth sector, as always, is presenting itself as a fertile ground for organizing.

4. Duterte for the macho
Duterte is notably a very masculine phenomenon, with net satisfaction with Duterte among males being second only to one's being from Mindanao in net points (+71). Conversely, women registered among the highest rate of dissatisfaction with Digong at 15%, even though 72% of female respondents are still satisfied with him.

The nature of public satisfaction with all presidents is that its trend is always to go down. But it is important for the Left to crunch the numbers to know exactly the situation it is dealing with.

The point is that half of the population is still poor

The headline of the national daily BusinessWorld could have been music to the ears of its target reader class: "Self-rated poverty nears record low." The latest SWS survey, to which the business paper has priority access, reported that 45% of families surveyed in the second quarter considered themselves poor. The last time this supposedly happened was in December 2011.

The number actually represents 10.5 million families according to the SWS. Multiplied by five, the results would suggest over 50 million Filipinos living in poverty. That doesn't sound much like good news, having a country half of whose population is considering itself poor. Which is saying a lot since according to BusinessWorld's own report, the poor tend to look at their situation optimistically by saying they're just "getting by" despite real conditions indicating otherwise.

Respondents in Metro Manila report the poverty threshold at P20,000 for each family. Assuming a family of five, that threshold is nowhere near a luxurious lifestyle.

So the real story is that half of the population is still poor, and above the official estimate of 26%. Self-rated poverty has been hovering at the 50% level during the Arroyo and Aquino administrations. A dip in the figure is meaningless in the face of the fact that the poor have been in poverty for decades.