Poverty rate at over three-year high at 52%

SWS recently released its 2018 Q3 self-reported poverty survey results. Link here: https://www.sws.org.ph/swsmain/artcldisppage/?artcsyscode=ART-20181009230934

At 52%, this is a record high for the Duterte administration, and last happened in December 2014. The figure means that most (median) of the 12.2 million poorest families in the Philippines are living on less than the national threshold of P10,000 monthly, which in itself is a ridiculous amount to keep even a family of four together.

The data show that it is not uncommon to see a steep rise in self-reported poverty. Steep rises have occurred for all past administrations. However, it also appears that those sharp increases did not go on for more than just a few (possibly three) quarters. Though this is only the second quarterly poverty rate increase under Duterte since Q2, the next quarter is crucial as it appears prices are still expected to rise.

Note, however, that poverty is at a historical low for Metro Manila, the seat of political action in the country. The increase is rather due to sharp increases (12 points) in "Balance Luzon," plus the five points in Mindanao, where poverty has always been intense and is currently at 65%.

Previously in this blog I highlighted that the national poverty rate has been going down. Apparently it's only because of what can be called the "NCR-Luzon effect." This makes sense as most direct investments probably just end up there. Meanwhile, life for those in the Visayas and Mindanao is very hard at best. The economy is clearly not working for all, and is clearly a result of government's failed policies at the national level, or lack of it.

Poverty in Q1 2018 is 42%: Time to Reposition the Debate

Q1 2018 self-reported poverty is 42%, the same as it was right after Duterte assumed office. The 42%figure is a historical low since SWS started taking the survey in 1983.

However, even as the Duterte administration has hit the figure twice, poverty reduction rate is almost flat during the entire seven quarters of the Duterte regime. But again it is too early to make anything of this. Self-reported poverty was in fact rising during the entire first four years of the Aquino II administration, before plunging down to around 44% in 2016 just before he left and Duterte rode the momentum.

Note that we are still talking about a national median monthly poverty threshold of P13,000 per family. That would mean that 42% of Filipino families were living below that threshold, with a very high number in the Visayas. The threshold is set higher at P20,000 in NCR. However, that's still just over P660 for 30% of families in the NCR that are self-reporting as poor by that low standard.

Although really very slowly, self-reported poverty has been going down for a while now. It is time for the Left to reposition the debate from poverty alone and to focus really on inequality. The thresholds are very low, especially compared with all the good stuff that the middle class can now afford.

https://www.sws.org.ph/swsmain/artcldisppage/?artcsyscode=ART-20180425175540

 

 

Poverty inching up based on SWS data

After a 42% near-historical drop in the poverty rate as regularly measured by SWS, the self-rated poverty rate is now back to 50% of Filipino families. The last time this happened was in December 2015, and the second consecutive increase, following the 44% recorded during the last survey.

I said previously that the historical low reported in November which greeted the Duterte administration last year is probably mostly still a product of policies under the previous administration, which, toward its final two years, appeared to have managed to pull the rates down consistently.

What a difference a year makes, and after the euphoria over electing a populist president have subsided. At this rate, the previous administration's centerpiece anti-poverty program, the Pantawid, has not yet been completely phased out -- which is the same thing people like Duterte supporter Liza Maza of the NAPC are advocating.

When the Pantawid/CCT disappears, we can expect poverty to riot some more. Sure, you can argue all day that the Pantawid is a dole-out and does not solve poverty. But neither does killing the poor by the thousands, which is this government's own centerpiece program.

SWS reports historical low in poverty rate (or 42% of families)

Most probably still as a result of the policies of the past administration, SWS reports self-rated poverty by Filipino families at 42%. As the survey company happily reports: "This bettered the previous record-low of 43% in March 1987 and also in March 2010."

A country with 42% of families reporting being poor is not exactly good news, but is at least more truthful statistic compared with what the PSA offers for this data point (they don't do it in the "self-reported" manner).

Link: http://www.sws.org.ph/swsmain/artcldisppage/?artcsyscode=ART-20161013101158

The point is that half of the population is still poor

The headline of the national daily BusinessWorld could have been music to the ears of its target reader class: "Self-rated poverty nears record low." The latest SWS survey, to which the business paper has priority access, reported that 45% of families surveyed in the second quarter considered themselves poor. The last time this supposedly happened was in December 2011.

The number actually represents 10.5 million families according to the SWS. Multiplied by five, the results would suggest over 50 million Filipinos living in poverty. That doesn't sound much like good news, having a country half of whose population is considering itself poor. Which is saying a lot since according to BusinessWorld's own report, the poor tend to look at their situation optimistically by saying they're just "getting by" despite real conditions indicating otherwise.

Respondents in Metro Manila report the poverty threshold at P20,000 for each family. Assuming a family of five, that threshold is nowhere near a luxurious lifestyle.

So the real story is that half of the population is still poor, and above the official estimate of 26%. Self-rated poverty has been hovering at the 50% level during the Arroyo and Aquino administrations. A dip in the figure is meaningless in the face of the fact that the poor have been in poverty for decades.