Rodrigo Duterte has reportedly extended Martial Law in Mindanao until December. That act by Congress is brazen, considering that the survey numbers on Martial Law point to its shaky foundations on the public.
• SWS reports that on a national view, 57% of Filipinos support Martial Law for the whole of Mindanao. What the SWS doesn't say is that net approval on the same is only +17. Net approval is approval minus disapproval, and disapproval for Martial Law for the whole of Mindanao is quite high at 40%.
• Filipinos approve of Martial Law only in Mindanao. They don't want Martial Law for the Visayas and Luzon.
Filipinos may approve of Martial Law to address the war in Mindanao. It's an entirely different matter outside of Mindanao, where approval for Martial Law drops down to 20% (but more on this later).
Should Duterte think of bringing ML to the national capital, he will face significant opposition. Almost seven out of 10 Filipinos disagree with Martial Law being implemented in Luzon. Note that this figure is higher than the national public approval for Martial Law in Mindanao, which is only 57%.
• In fact, the 20% public approval for Martial Law in Luzon is only a result of respondents from Mindanao pulling the averages. Without Mindanao respondents, approval for Martial Law drops down to only 13% of the population. Mindanaoans very highly approve of Martial Law for the entire country. Respondents from Mindanao are the only category of respondents with a net positive approval for Martial Law. Why is this?
Well, for one, they're the ones getting inconvenienced by the war. Another thing, let's not forget that Mindanao is a Duterte base. They love Duterte there.
• Support for Martial Law thus appears to be a product of 1) contingency; and 2) historical disconnect. Consider this: Approval for a Luzon-based Martial Law is highest among those within the 18-24 age bracket. This is the generation born after 1993.
Conversely, Martial Law is most unpopular among those who are aged 55 and above. Net disagreement with ML from this age group is highest at -54. They also register the highest disagreement at 71%. This is the group of respondents whose youngest members were born in 1962, 10 years before Marcos' Martial Law declaration in 1972.
Support for Martial Law is contingent on the war -- on the supposed need to counter the forces of "terrorism," which is how the government has framed it. Again, the highest support comes from people from Mindanao, the people most affected by the conflict.
The same groups who support for Martial Law for Mindanao -- older people, and people from Metro Manila -- are the same ones who don't want it being implemented elsewhere. For them, this is really just about the war, and nothing else.
What do the numbers tell us, then? To counter Martial Law, I think the strategic point is to show that the war is actually over, and the enemy has been subdued. To continue getting popular support for ML, Duterte will likely play up on the people's fears and say that ISIS is still a very potent force. Toward this end, he will get a lot of help from many of the country's supposed "terrorism experts" in instilling fear among the public.
A history drive is in order. The story of Martial Law needs constant retelling. We have to bring down the 26% approval for Martial Law among the youth to 0%.
Finally, we can see that at least Duterte is still following fairly predictable behavior. He imposed ML in a region he knew would support it wholeheartedly. A Rodrigo Duterte pushing for expanding the coverage of Martial Law elsewhere will be a sign to watch out for.
For now, he has committed his first mistake -- extending a military policy that no one likes outside of his own home base.
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