Friday, June 23, 2017

REPOST: Why the government TRAIN could derail

Why the government TRAIN could derail

Under the government’s Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) program, projected gains from the VAT expansion (for fuel, automobile, and sugar-based foods) at P500 billion will offset revenue losses of P200 billion from the lowered personal income tax (PIT) for a net gain of P300 billion. Sounds good, right?
However, many civil society groups, social movements in the labor, urban poor, and peasant sectors, and some economists object to TRAIN. The problem lies in the approach that the government has taken in emphasizing consumption taxes to raise revenues. This is seen as prorich and antipoor.
Bloomberg asserts that “the inherent problem with a consumption tax is that it is regressive, because low- and middle-income people consume a larger share of their money than high-income people do.” A Japan Times editorial acknowledged “the regressive nature of the consumption tax, which will proportionately hit poorer households more severely than wealthy ones [as] low-income people spend a greater portion of their income on daily necessities than do the wealthy.” For William Gale (Brookings Institution), “another way of saying that is high income households save more of their income than low income households do.”
The health card being played by the government on sugar-sweetened beverages is disputed by Dr. Antonio Dans (UP College of Medicine), who says that the biggest health problem confronting the poor is not obesity but inadequate calorie intake which affects 69 percent of Filipinos. Dans adds that a propoor version of the tax bill should result in lower prices of healthier alternative sources of calories. A George Mason University study agrees that “improving education and increasing the availability of healthier goods may be better steps than raising taxes on those who can least afford them.”
Some legislators oppose the fuel tax rise, saying these would “cause a hike in transportation fees and basic needs” burdening “minimum wage workers, farmers and fisherfolk who [will] not benefit from the program.” Economist Cielito Habito also laments that the tax on imports of coal, the world’s dirtiest source of energy, remains at 0.2 percent while cleaner fuels like natural gas are taxed 43 percent.
For the middle class, the P250,000 PIT threshold may not even provide any respite at all. The National Economic and Development Authority estimates that a family of four needs P120,000 a month to enjoy a decent life. This should translate into a PIT threshold of P360,000 per person per year. Economist Winnie Monsod concludes that “the total impact of TRAIN is negative for the majority of our people” and criticizes the program’s safety nets of “transfer” schemes as vague and inadequate.
Rather than imposing more regressive consumption taxes that hurt the poor and middle classes, the government should instead look inward and plug policy and administrative holes that result in negative and illicit financial outflows.
Among these are the excessive tax holidays enjoyed by corporations, foregone revenues in special economic zones and from free trade agreements, trade misinvoicing, rampant smuggling, payments on “sovereign guarantees” for failed firms, corruption by government bureaucrats and politicians, unmet tax collection targets, the 370 pending tax evasion cases, and the unrecovered illegal wealth plundered by the Marcos family and their cronies. Most of these don’t need new legislation, just the political will to recover trillions of pesos in relinquished government incomes—abundantly much more than what can be generated from TRAIN.
Eduardo C. Tadem, PhD, is president of the Freedom from Debt Coalition and professorial lecturer in Asian Studies, University of the Philippines Diliman.


Read more: http://opinion.inquirer.net/105003/government-train-derail#ixzz4kn5cQfG9
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Friday, June 16, 2017

REPOST: Labor coalition welcomes lower tax on personal income but rejects regressive impact of excise taxes

Workers have long been demanding for higher tax exemptions, hence, the approval by the House of Representatives of Package 1 of the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) is a welcome relief.
Under the TRAIN, income lower than P250,000 per year will be tax free while higher income brackets, except for those who earn more than P5 million, will be charged a lowered tax rate of 25% from the current high of 32%.
This is surely a welcome development.  But for the labor coalition Nagkaisa, the workers’ gain in Personal Income Tax (PIT) will be offset in a regressive manner by the imposition of excise taxes on fuel products and the lifting of VAT exemptions in the sale of specific goods and services.
“Everyone knows, not just workers, that it will increase prices of goods and services that would affect mostly the poor and those at the lower income brackets,” said Nagkaisa spokesman Renato Magtubo. 
Magtubo said the TRAIN’s objective of shifting the tax burden from the poor to the rich, “Seems to be scheming if not tricky as forgone revenue on the side of the government, which is equivalent to individual savings derived from lower PIT of specific income group, shall be recovered in a universal manner through excise taxes and expanded VAT.”
The group explained further that the tax base can never be expanded through exemptions in PIT and corporate income, making indirect taxation through excise taxes and VAT expansion the main strategy in generating new and more revenue.  “Otherwise, nobody is going to pay for the lost revenue,” added Magtubo.
Under TRAIN’s package 1, a P3.00-P6.00 excise taxes will be imposed per liter on fuel and P10 for locally produced sugary products while several VAT-exempt products and services will be lifted, including cooperative income exceeding the P3 million thresholds.  Likewise, sale of real estate for socialized housing will now be covered by VAT.
According to the group, even the simulations made by staffs of the finance department showed the inevitable impact of increase in VAT payments by decile group – 43% for the richest 10% and 35% for the bottom 80%.  Increase for the second richest 10% is 22%. 
“An increase of 43 and 22 per cent respectively may mean nothing for the richest 20% who got significant savings from PIT exemptions.  But a 35% increase is surely a burden for the bottom 80% who includes the majority in the formal and informal sector, employed and unemployed, of the working class.  In the same manner everyone will be paying for the direct and indirect impact of excise taxes on fuel,” explained Magtubo. 
The labor leader added that those living in SPUG areas which rely on diesel as their single source of power will be absorbing a “minimal” impact, according to DOF.  But that would mean additional P84 for those who consume 100 kWh per month and P106 for those who consume 300 kWh. 
“These are the immediate impact that will hit everyone while the poor wait for the promised transfers contained in the proposed expenditure programs of the government,” said Magtubo.
The group said it will intervene in the continuing deliberation of the tax package in Congress especially on the proposed lowering of income taxes for corporations from 30% to 25%. 
“Our main question for this is why a tax rate on corporate income, which is supposed to be a tax on profit, is being lowered down to the same level of personal income which is a tax on labor?  A uniform rate on business and personal income can never be considered progressive taxation,” concludes Magtubo.”

NAGKAISA
On Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) Package 1
13 June 2017
 
 
 
 
 
 

Sunday, June 11, 2017

What does the Philippine economy produce?

Bourgeois economics has a fetish with the national GDP (gross domestic product), a number which represents economic production. Quarter after quarter, journalists, economists, policymakers, and the local elites join together to hear the most recent GDP number from the government, hoping from anywhere near 6%-7% growth each time.

The notion is that higher GDP growth is better, and lower GDP growth sucks. GDP growth is supposedly better for all of us. That may be true, but it is important to know what the economy is actually made of.

In 2016, going by current prices, the Philippine economy based on PSA data amounted to some P15 trillion (not considering a category called "Public Administration and Defense; Compulsory Social Security" for which I could not find data).

Our Top 15 economic activities and their worth at current prices in 2016 are as follows (in millions):

1. Retail Trade 2,056,789 SERVICE SECTOR
2. AGRICULTURE SECTOR 1,397,615 AGRICULTURE
3. Construction (Private) 1,359,660 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
4. Food manufactures 1,347,029 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
5. Renting and other Business Activities 969,128 SERVICE SECTOR
6. Education 557,836 SERVICE SECTOR
7. Banking Institutions 529,041 SERVICE SECTOR
8. Wholesale Trade 508,306 SERVICE SECTOR
9. Ownership of Dwellings 485,451 SERVICE SECTOR
10. Construction (Public) 465,995 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
11. Real Estate 444,319 SERVICE SECTOR
12. COMMUNICATION 377,092 SERVICE SECTOR
13. ELECTRICITY 373,196 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
14. Non-bank Financial Intermediation 371,342 SERVICE SECTOR
15. Chemical & chemical products 356,133 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

What do we produce as a country, then?

A lot of the activity is in a category called "Retail Trade" within the Service Industry. Retail trade means nothing more than selling goods. According to the 2013 Annual Survey of Philippine Business and Industry (most recent), establishments within this category are engaged in activities such as retail and wholesale in household equipment (appliances, etc.); food, beverages and tobacco; and specialized items.

Retail sale in a category called "non-specialized stores" according to the PSA employed the largest number of workers among all Philippine industries, with 130,834 employees at the time. For their troubles, workers in the sector (which include "salesladies" in malls) received an average of P11,260 per month.

We are basically a nation of malls, salespeople and construction workers that receive low pay. And a lot of the wealth really comes from people renting out the capital resources that lie firmly in the hands of the elites, whether land, buildings, telecommunications infrastructure and electricity.

Another conspicuous detail is that our logical economic base, agriculture, amounts to a only around 9.3% of the economy by current value. And because we failed our economy at its base, it follows that we also do not have any serious industrial manufacturing capability, especially in machineries (which is among our top imports), industrial chemicals (not just chemicals for producing soap and shampoo) and electronics (beyond making chips for export, which return to us as finished goods in the form of cellphones and laptops). We have a Communication service sector, but not an industrial manufacturing sector dedicated to this. At this point, one can see the folly of arguing for a mining renaissance in the Philippines -- all of that raw material will only be exported, because we have no serious industry within to use them on.

Meanwhile, Rodrigo Duterte has vowed to up government spending in infrastructure (our No. 10 economic activity) during his administration. Earlier in his campaign, he said he would espouse Philippine industrialization and pay attention to agriculture. Of course, those were the days. Almost a year later, not even a hint of any industrialization plan has been made, and we still import rice, our staple, by the ton.

Next time they give us the numbers on GDP growth, we should ask -- growth for who?

Sources:

http://psa.gov.ph/nap-press-release/pr/2016%20Q4
http://psa.gov.ph/content/2013-annual-survey-philippine-business-and-industry-aspbi-wholesale-and-retail-trade-repair